[IMPORTANT] Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year(Forecast) (‘22/June)

 

 The supply and demand status of container ships/dry bulk carriers/tankers/LNG carriers analyzed in March has been updated. This report is updated on a quarterly basis to provide a macro investment perspective.

Ref) Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year (Forecast) (‘22/3M) (tistory.com)

Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year (Forecast) (‘22/3M)

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1. Inspection of container ship market conditions

 Looking at the rate of increase/decrease in container ship demand/supply, it is expected that the rate of increase in supply in 2022 and 2023 will exceed the rate of increase/decrease in demand, acting as a factor for the decrease in freight rates. SCFI, a major index of the containership market, has also fallen by more than 20% since its peak in January 22, and freight rates have not rebounded due to overlapping geopolitical instability issues. In addition, as the purchasing power is expected to decrease further as interest rates rise, starting with the US, become a reality, it is judged that it is better to hold off investment in container ships in the long term.

 

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2. Bulk carrier market condition check

 Similar to the previous containership market, the bulk carrier market broke the BDI high in 12 years in 2021. And this year, the 22nd year, is slightly lower than in the 21st year, but the freight rates are still very high compared to the average. Bulk carriers are also affected by the global economic slowdown and can cause freight rates to decline, but geopolitical instability issues are also causing freight rates to rise in terms of bulk carrier demand/supply. If we look only at supply and demand, I recommend investing in the bulk carrier sector from a mid- to long-term point of view, as the rate of increase/decrease in demand compared to supply in 2023 is high.

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3. Check the tanker market conditions

 Unlike the previous analysis in March, the oil tanker market situation is expected to increase further in FY22, so the current supply and demand growth rates are almost the same. Although OPEC+'s crude oil production growth rate is very slow, the oil tanker sector seems to be the most attractive investment in terms of its investment strategy at the bottom. Inflation caused by high oil prices will eventually lead to a decrease in purchasing power due to interest rate hikes, and while oil prices are gradually coming down, oil producing countries will try to match the total amount of imports by increasing cargo volume. In addition, as demand growth will exceed supply growth in 2023, investment is absolutely recommended.

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4. Inspection of LNG carrier market conditions

 Similar to the previous analysis, the LNG carrier market has developed as the volume of cargo and vessel supply, which has increased explosively in the past six years, match. Recently, LNG cargo volume due to the Russia-Ukraine war has become an issue. In terms of eco-friendly issues, it may still be attractive, but in terms of supply/demand, it is recommended to hold off investment because the supply growth rate will exceed the demand growth rate from 2023.

Thanks.