BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/27W)

In the 27th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested.

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1.     Last Week’s forecasts

1-1.        BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual BDI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/26W(6/27~7/1)	2,527.450	2,227.89	13.4%	86.6%

 

1-2.        SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual SCFI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/26W(6/27~7/1)	4,211.002	4,216.13	0.2%	99.8%

 The prediction accuracy of BDI and SCFI was 86.6% and 99.8%, respectively. In the case of BDI, a large prediction error occurred. In particular, the predicted value last week was 2,527.450, but the actual value was 2,227.89, indicating that not only the magnitude of the error but also the direction was reversed. As concerns over the economic slowdown have impacted raw material prices, concerns have arisen about a decrease in cargo volume..

  The average BDI MAPE value for the last 14 predictions is 5.0% and the prediction rate is 95.0%, and the SCFI average MAPE value is 0.6% and the prediction rate is 99.4%.

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2.     BDI forecast

2-1. ARIMA, Time series analysis

 For the BDI forecast, I used weekly data (438 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to July 01, 2022 to predict the freight for three weeks in the future.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/27W(7/4~8)	2,122.379	↓
‘22/28W(7/11~15)	2,110.775	↓
‘22/29W(7/18~22)	2,118.850	↓

 

 As shown in the table and figure above, BDI (as of July 1st: 2,227.89) fell by a whopping 8.0% compared to last week (as of June 24: 2,422.80). However, it is encouraging that the cape market rebounded slightly in the second half of last week (Thursday/Friday) and reached the US$20,000 level. As the Panamax/Supramax market is also gradually declining due to the cape decline, the BDI level is at the April level of this year.

 As a result of reflecting the latest trends, the ARIMA model also showed that the market conditions would be weak for the next three weeks. Nevertheless, the rise of the Cape market in the second half of last week is making it very difficult for market participants to find a direction.

 

Ref) BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/26W) (tistory.com)

BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/26W)

 

2-2. Logistic regression analysis

The logistic regression analysis result was 0.67, which was higher than the baseline 0.5 at a high level. Unlike the ARIMA model results, the fact that the market is seeing an uptrend next week seems to need to be managed through future records. In other words, the logistic regression model predicted that the bulk carrier market would rise next week.

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3.     SCFI Outlook

3-1. ARIMA, Time series analysis

 For the SCFI forecast, I used weekly data (637 pieces) from October 16, 2009 to July 01, 2022 to predict the future freight for three weeks.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/26W(6/27~7/1)	4,201.261	↘
‘22/27W(7/4~8)	4,197.081	↘
‘22/28W(7/11~15)	4,195.906	↘

 

 As shown in the table and figure above, the SCFI (as of 6/24: 4,216.13) fell -0.14% compared to the previous week (as of 6/17: 4,221.96). Looking at each route, the decline was relatively large in the North American West Coast/East Coast route. The decline in the North American route, which has driven SCFI's uptrend so far, is expected to keep SCFI down going forward.

 

3-2. Logistic regression analysis

 

 The predicted value of SCFI's logistic regression model was 0.392, which is similar to last week's forecast (0.386), and at the same time predicted a decline in the direction of SCFI's freight rate next week below the baseline (0.5). As the result of the ARIMA model is the same, the SCFI is highly likely to fall.

 

Thanks.