BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/28W)

In the 28th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested.

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1.     Last Week’s forecasts

1-1.        BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual BDI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/27W(7/4~8)	2,122.379	2,088.00	1.6%	98.4%

 

1-2.        SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual SCFI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/27W(7/4~8)	4,201.261	4,201.26	1.4%	98.6%

 The prediction accuracy of BDI and SCFI was 98.4% and 98.6%, respectively. The predicted value (2,122.379) and actual value (2,088.00) of BDI, and the predicted value (4,201.261) and actual value (4,201.26) of SCFI all achieved accuracy and trend.

 The BDI is also on the decline due to concerns over an economic downturn caused by the US interest rate hike. However, unlike the SCFI, the BDI is expected to rebound in the near future thanks to China's stimulus measures and a base effect.

  The average BDI MAPE value for the last 15 predictions is 4.8% and the prediction rate is 95.2%, and the SCFI average MAPE value is 0.6% and the prediction rate is 99.4%.

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2.     BDI forecast

2-1. ARIMA, Time series analysis

 For the BDI forecast, I used weekly data (439 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to July 08, 2022 to predict the freight for three weeks in the future.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/28W(7/11~15)	2,054.737	↓
‘22/29W(7/18~22)	2,057.793	→
‘22/30W(7/25~29)	2,094.032	↗

 

 As shown in the table and figure above, the BDI (as of 7/8: 2,088.00) fell by a whopping 6.3% compared to last week (as of 67/1: 2,227.89). It fell more than 5% for two weeks in a row, the lowest level in three months since April of this year. However, it is worth noting that the Cape 5TC charter rate, which plummeted on Wednesday, rebounded last week on Thursday/Friday and reached a bottom. It cannot be seen as a rebound yet, but a further sharp decline is unlikely.

As a result of reflecting the latest trends, the ARIMA model also forecasts the bulk market to be bearish next week. However, considering the recent decline, BDI is expected to bottom out from the second week onwards and rise.

 

Ref) BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/27W) (tistory.com)

BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/27W)

 

2-2. Logistic regression analysis

 The result of logistic regression analysis was 0.264, which is far below the baseline 0.5. In the last sub-analysis, ARIMA predicted an uptrend in the down/logistic regression analysis, but looking at the results of the 28th week analysis, it turned out that the direction of the logistic regression model was wrong. It seems that the ARIMA model, which reflects the latest trends better, has higher predictive power.

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3.     SCFI Outlook

3-1. ARIMA, Time series analysis

For the SCFI forecast, I used weekly data (638 pieces) from October 16, 2009 to July 08, 2022 to predict the future freight for three weeks.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/28W(7/11~15)	4,126.203	↘
‘22/29W(7/18~22)	4,112.534	↘
‘22/30W(7/25~29)	4,109.835	↘

 As shown in the table and figure above, SCFI (as of 7/8: 4,143.87) fell -1.41% compared to last week (as of 7/1: 4,203.27). It's not a high drop, but looking at the recent four-week downtrend, it looks like it will continue to go down little by little. The results of the ARIMA analysis model also predicted that the SCFI will continue to decline over the next three weeks.

 

3-2. Logistic regression analysis

 

 The predicted value of SCFI's logistic regression model is 0.397, below the baseline 0.5, and it is judged that it will continue to decline from the last time.

 

Thanks.