Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year (Forecast) (‘22/3M)

 Among the various ship types in the shipping market, this study will examine the annual demand and supply change rates for container ships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and LNG carriers.

Because the factors affecting the shipping market are very diverse, it is impossible to predict the future market situation simply by supply and demand.

But In the long run, it is possible to grasp the overall large trend and flow because it moves in a reasonable line within the range of the increase/decrease rate of supply and demand.

 

1.   Inspection of container ship market conditions

 

 Looking at the rate of increase/decrease in container ship demand/supply, it can be seen that the rate of increase/decrease in supply versus demand was high in FY19 and FY20, respectively. In particular, the container ship market has risen sharply due to supply chain disruption caused by covid-19, the spread of the virus, and deterioration of congestion in western US ports. Along with that trend, it can be seen that the demand growth rate was higher than the supply growth rate in 2021. It should be noted that in 2023, the supply growth rate will be 7.7% compared to the 2.95% demand growth rate.

 

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2.     Inspection of DryBulk ship market conditions

 

 As shown in the table below, it can be seen that the demand growth rate for bulk carriers in 2019 and 2020 was very low. In addition, BDI, a representative benchmark index for bulk carriers, was also very low this year. Similar to the containership market, the BDI index also rose in 2021 as the demand growth rate slightly exceeded the supply growth rate. The difference from the container ship market is that the supply growth rate is expected to remain at a very low level (0.31%) in 2023, so the future market itself can be viewed as positive.

 

 

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3.     Inspection of CrudeOil ship market conditions

 

 Unlike the containership/bulk carriers mentioned above, the oil tanker market broke a historic low in 2021. Even as of March 2022, the current VLCC profitability is still very poor. This is because the demand growth rate recorded negative in 2019 and 2020, respectively, while the supply growth rate was 6.54% and 3.26%, creating an oversupply market. However, it should be noted that the future oil tanker market conditions are very positive as the demand-to-supply growth rate will greatly exceed the supply/demand growth rate in 2022 and 2023.

 

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4.     Inspection of LNG ship market conditions

 

 In the LNG carrier market, the demand for natural gas began to increase as decarbonization and environmental regulations began. However, the increase in supply compared to the increase in demand was delayed when considering the ship's construction period (2 years).

Since 2015, supply and demand have gradually returned to balance, and from 2017 to 2022, the growth rate of demand versus supply continues to be high. However, the LNG carrier market is expected to show a steady trend as supply increases compared to demand in 2023.

 

 

Thanks.