BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/13W)

 By using ‘ARIMA’, a representative time series model mainly used in econometrics, the future price of BDI, a bulk carrier rate index, and SCFI, a container freight rate index, will be predicted periodically.

 

1. BDI Outlook

 To forecast the BDI index, we used weekly data (425 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to March 25, 2022 to predict the index for three weeks in the future.

Date	Forecast	Lo80	Hi80	Lo90	Hi95
‘22/14W	2,483.531	2,321.019	2,646.043	2,234.990	2,732.072
‘22/15W	2,449.864	2,136.281	2,763.446	1,970.280	2,929.447
‘22/16W	2,447.966	2,016.321	2,879.612	1,787.821	3,108.111

 As shown in the table and figure above, the BDI (as of March 25: 2,564.20) is expected to adjust slightly over the next three weeks. The rate of change is -3.1%, -1.4%, and -0.1%, which is expected to gradually reduce the extent of the decline and solidify the bottom.  

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2. SCFI Outlook

 

For the SCFI index forecast, we used weekly data (623 pieces) from October 16, 2009 to March 15, 2022 to predict index for three weeks in the future.

Date	Forecast	Lo80	Hi80	Lo90	Hi95
‘22/14W	4,430.827	4,361.465	4,500.189	4,324.747	4,536.907
‘22/15W	4,434.775	4,325.877	4,543.674	4,268.230	4,601.321
‘22/16W	4,457.469	4,311.782	4,603.155	4,234.661	4,680.276

 As shown in the table and figure above, the SCFI (as of March 25th: 4,434.07) is expected to stop falling for the past 10 weeks. It will decrease to -0.1% at the 14th week, but turn up 0.1% at the 15th week and expand to 0.5% at the 16th week.

 

 

 It is a number predicted based on statistics, and the accuracy cannot be guaranteed yet, but I hope it will be a reference for readers who are curious about the future index movement.

 

thank you.