BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/15W)

 The BDI and SCFI predicted last week and the average actual BDI and SCFI values of the last week are compared and tested. From this analysis, the forecast value was predicted by adding the logistic regression model analysis method to ARIMA.

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1. Last week's forecasts

1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual BDI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/14W(4/4~8)	2,244.468	2,152.80	4.3%	95.7%

1-2.        SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted

Date	Last week Forecast	Actual SCFI	MAPE(%)	Accuracy(%)
‘22/14W(4/4~8)	4,331.830	4,348.81	1.6%	98.4%

 The prediction accuracy of BDI and SCFI was 95.7% and 98.4%, respectively. The predicted values (2,244.468) and actual values (2,152.80) of BDI, and predicted values (4,331.830) and actual values (4,348.910) of SCFI all achieved Trend and Accuracy.

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2. BDI Outlook

2-1. ARIMA, Time Series Analysis

  To forecast the BDI index, we used weekly data (427 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to April 8, 2022 to predict the future fare for three weeks. However, it seems to be the key to predicting the inflection point, which is constantly being emphasized, well in the future.

 

 To forecast the BDI, I used weekly data (427 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to April 8, 2022 to predict the future fare for three weeks.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/15W(4/11~15)	2,034.748	↓
‘22/16W(4/18~22)	2,018.533	↓
‘22/17W(4/25~29)	2,037.440	↗

 As shown in the table and figure above, BDI (as of 4/8: 2,152.80) is expected to continue its decline next week. As the purpose of this article is to view numerical values through data analysis, please refer to the Ref) below for the reasons and rationale for the decline/rise. In the 15th week (4/11~15), the forecast value is 2,034.748, which is expected to decrease by -5.5% compared to 4/8, and it is expected to stop falling at 17W and rise.

 

Ref) Bulk Carrier Shipping Market (‘22/14W)
(https://shippingmarket.tistory.com/15?category=1010135) [Shipping Market Insight]

 

2-2. logistic regression analysis

 Ref ) BDI Prediction Using Logistic Regression Analysis
(https://shippingmarket.tistory.com/16) [Shipping Market Insight]

 

 The article in the Ref above explained the analysis and model of logistic regression, so please refer to it if you have any questions.

 The analysis result is very simple. The expected trend for next week is 0.178, below the baseline of 0.5, so the direction of the market is predicted to decline.

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 3. SCFI Outlook

3-1. ARIMA, Time Series Analysis

 For the SCFI index forecast, we used weekly data (625 pieces) from October 16, 2009 to April 8, 2022 to predict the future fare for three weeks.

Date	Forecast	Trend(WoW)
‘22/15W(4/11~15)	4,247.188	↓
‘22/16W(4/18~22)	4,239.022	→
‘22/17W(4/25~29)	4,241.179	↗

 

 As shown in the table and figure above, the SCFI (as of 4/8: 4,263.66) is still unable to stop its pace and is expected to continue to decline. However, as shown in the previous analysis (Ref: BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/14W) (tistory.com)), it is expected that the decline will gradually decrease soon and a signal of a rebound will come out in a short period of time.

 

3-2. logistic regression model

 The results of the logistic regression analysis model of SCFI are also the same as the ARIMA values. With the predicted value of 0.369, the logistic model also predicts a decline in the SCFI movement next week.

 

 

Thanks.