Container Shipping Market (‘22/13W)

 As of March 25, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,434.07. 72.5% higher than the same period last year. The average SCFI of the last five years ('15-19) was 675.19, indicating that the fare level as of the 13th week of fiscal 22 is still very high.

However, the SCFI rate index declined for 10 consecutive weeks, reflecting the trend.

 

 

1.     Container Ship Weekly Trend

1-1.        Weekly Market Briefings 

 

•  In the 12 weeks (3.21~3.25) of '22, the SCFI Composite Index recorded '4,434.07p'. Weakness continued on all routes except for coastal waters, declining for the 10th week in a row

- China's Shenzhen, which had entered into a strong lockdown due to the covid-19, announced on the 21st that the restrictions would be eased. Even during the lockdown, the port operated normally, but port congestion, land transportation and industrial productivity decreased, which adversely affected export logistics. It will take some time to fully normalize.

- Shanghai, China also entered a phased lockdown for 9 days from the 28th. The shutdown of local factories will negatively affect export demand from China, and freight rates are expected to remain weak for a while. 

---

 1-2.        SCFI Composite / Europe / USWC, USEC Index

 

Europe :

 

•  European routes down for ninth week in a row

  - Unfavorable external economic factors, such as inflation and rising oil prices, weakened demand and continued weakness

  - The average number of ports per week at St.Petersburg Port has plummeted from 32 to about 10 recently as most shipping companies, except for Russian shipping companies and COSCO, have suspended services in Russia.

  - In major European ports, the congestion time of export containers has increased by 36% since February, the transit time has also increased by 41%, and the port congestion has increased since the war.

 

USWC/USEC :

 

•  US West Coast declines for 3 weeks in a row, while East Coast routes continue to weaken for 6 weeks

- March's weekly capacity was 565,000 TEU(US), an increase of 18.9% from the previous month, while on the demand side, there was an incentive to decrease cargo volume due to China's lockdown. Short-term supply of ships in other East Asian countries, including Korea, is expected to slightly increase due to the rebalancing of ships due to a decrease in demand from China. 

---

1-3.        technical analysis

MACD : October 08, 2021, Trade signal (Short Position establishment) signal occurred. So far, a strategy to maintain a short position seems necessary.

 

 

Thanks.