Container Shipping Market (‘22/14W)

 As of April 01, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,348.71. 73.8% higher than the same period last year. The average price for the last five years('15-‘19) of SCFI is 818.57, and the 22 year-to-date value of 4,808.97 is 487.5% higher than the average price for the five years. Although the SCFI has continued to decline for the past 11 consecutive weeks, it can be seen that it is still at a very high level in light of the past.

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 1.     Container Ship Weekly Trend

1-1.        Weekly Market Briefings

•  In the 14th week of 2022, the SCFI composite index recorded ‘4,348.7p’. Weakness continued on all routes and continued to decline for the 11th week in a row

- Concerns about supply chain disruption increase as Shanghai, China enters lockdown (3.28~4.5). Amid the massive blockade of public transport and commercial facilities, Shanghai Container Terminal is operating normally.

- The incident has reduced inland transportation capacity by 30% and is expected to intensify congestion as some logistics facilities are closed. As the world's No. 1 port and the center of the semiconductor industry, Shanghai is expected to have a negative impact on future demand recovery.

  

1-2.        SCFI Composite / Europe / USWC, USEC Index

Europe :

•  European routes declined for the 10th week in a row

- The decline in freight rates on European routes continued as demand weakened due to worsening external economic conditions and the lockdown in China. Congestion at major European ports continues due to congestion at Bremerhaven, Germany, and trucker strikes at Valencia, Spain

- The worsening of congestion in Europe, which has intensified since the end of February, has had a negative impact on the overall index

 

USWC/USEC :

•  US West coast fell for 4 weeks in a row, while East Coast routes continued to be weak for 7 weeks

- As the North American route continues to weaken, shipping companies are withdrawing their plans to increase their rates in April and extending their existing rates. The number of ships waiting in LA/LB port was 43 as of 3/25, a slight increase from the previous week's 39, but decreased to less than half compared to the beginning of this year (101 numbers).

- In the aftermath of the continued congestion of the western port, cargoes from Asia to North America inland transit through the eastern port are increasing. In February, the western port volume increased by only 4% compared to the previous year, while the eastern port increased by 38%.

 

1-3.     Technical analysis

MACD : October 08, 2021, Trade signal (Short Position establishment) signal occurred. So far, a strategy to maintain a short position seems necessary.

 To be noted that, Timecharter rate assessments remained at significantly elevated levels this week, although generally moved sideways w-o-w. The Containership Timecharter Index stood at 434 points, up 20% since the end of 2021. Therefore, in the next analysis, we will also try to add the Timecharter Index.

 

Thanks.