Mid- to long-term container market outlook

1. Mid- to long-term container demand forecast

(Source : Drewry)

 Looking at the picture above, container throughput is expected to bottom out at 1.5% in 2022 and rise again. In particular, it is expected to record an average growth rate of 3.6% for three years from 2024 to 2026. 

---

2. Global container supply and demand index

(Source : Drewry)

 Let's take a look at the container supply and demand index. The Index was created based on the year 1980 as 100. In 2021, the supply-demand index was 104.4, indicating that demand was dominant, and freight rates increased significantly. Also in 2022, it is 100.4, which is a good axis in terms of supply and demand index.

 

However, looking at the sharp decline from 2023 and the recovery of the supply-demand index only in 2026, the container shipping market is expected to stabilize downward for a long time.

---

 3. Container supply growth rate

(Source : Drewry)

 

 The graph above shows the realistic rate of increase considering expected scrap (EEXI, etc.) and schedule delay (Slippage) in addition to simple delivery.

What is certain is that the supply increase rate is 3.8% in FY23 and 4.9% in FY24, and the supply advantage continues.

 

『As fundamentals are not expected to change significantly, the future determinant of freight rates will be external factors. If a sudden new pandemic or a sharp increase in scrap due to stronger EEXI regulations than expected and a downward stabilization of freight rates, the pattern of freight rates will change.』

 

thank you