Bulk Carrier Shipping Market (‘22/14W)

 As of March 24, BDI(Baltic Dry Index) recorded 2,357. 17.3% higher than the same period last year(’21 YTD vs ’22 YTD). Looking at the BDI 60-day moving average in the graph below, it can be seen that it is close to the support line. In the case of cape, although it fell for about 3 weeks in a row, it succeeded in reducing the decline and changing direction as of 4/1.

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1.     Capesize Weekly Trend

1-1.        Weekly Market Briefings

 

• As the spread of Corona 19 in Tangshan, North China, which has been under lockdown since March 23, has entered the control phase, restrictions on movement in some areas of the city have been relaxed.
• However, the sluggish steel demand due to the continued lockdown in Shanghai limited the recovery of iron ore trade volume.
• Mixed trend is expected this week as support factors and pressure factors act at the same time
     - Expectations for cargo split due to undervaluation compared to Panamax and recovery of seasonal iron ore
       demand are positive 
     - On the other hand, concerns about the Qingming Festival holiday in China (April 4-5) and the prolonged
       lockdown in Shanghai caused a contraction in activity and a slowdown in demand.

  1-2.        technical analysis

 MACD : March 23, 2022, Trade signal (Short position establishment) signal generated

 

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2.     Panamax Weekly Trend

2-1.        Weekly Market Briefings

 

• The contraction of industrial activity due to the continued lockdown of major cities in China leads to a decrease in electricity demand and a decrease in the demand for coal imports to China.
  - The fact that the regular maintenance work for China's Daqing (Datong-Qinghuangdao) railway, which was originally scheduled to start on 4/8, was postponed to the end of April also delayed the demand for securing coal inventory for China.
• Importing countries other than China, such as India and Vietnam, focus on increasing their own production while waiting for the international coal price to fall.
  - The fact that China and India are continuously exploring the possibility of importing Russian coal is also a factor in the contraction of demand for Indonesian coal.
• The overall downward adjustment will continue for the time being, but if a change in circumstances, such as the negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, causes a change in coal and grain prices, the Panamax market is also expected to agree and realize a volatile market.

2-2.        technical analysis

MACD : March 31, 2022, Trade signal (Short Position establishment) signal occurred. However, in the case of Panamax 5TC, a downward signal occurred on March 17, an upward signal on March 23, and a downward signal on March 31 again. When you see pattern signals continue to occur in a short period of time, it is better not to trade or invest prematurely before the market moves in one direction.

Thanks.