Introduction of tanker ships ③ Introduction of major shipping companies, market trend analysis, oil price trend check

Hello,

In the last chapter of the introduction of tanker ships, as in the previous series, we will analyze the supply of ships. Among the various types of tanker ships (oil tankers, product ships, chemical ships, LNG/LPG ships), we understand that this will be an analysis and introduction focused on crude tankers.

 

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1.     Introduction of Crude Tanker, major shipping companies

The table above shows the status of top oil tanker companies. China COSCO ranked first with a total fleet of 17.18M DWT and 74 vessels. It is followed by China Merchants and Euronav NV. Korea's SK Shipping is ranked 13th, but I can't help but think it looks bigger in my eyes.

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By dividing the size and number of ships made with raw data, the average fleet capacity was obtained as follows.

Looking at the size of the average ships owned, Bahri is the largest and Petronas is the smallest, suggesting that each ship's strategy is different. Personally, I think it is good because a shipping company in a position to lead the market, with an average of 200,000 DWT, will be able to make a big profit during a sharp rise in the market. Based on the criteria above, the 1st to 7th places stand out.

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We will also take a look at the backlog of orders by shipper. Based on DWT, Euronav NV has an order balance of 1.39M DWT and Sinokor Merchant has 1.11M DWT. The ratio in the table is the total tonnage of each shipping company divided by the order book.

 

Looking at the investment points, it comes right behind the scenes, but the rate of increase and decrease in fleet volume in 2023 and 24 is very low.

Then, looking at the ratio of remaining orders to total fleet capacity, it shows that Sinokor, Petronas, and Euronav are expected to aggressively place orders and hold fleets. In other words, if the market conditions remain at a high level in a situation of limited supply as a whole, it seems that the above three shipping companies, which will absorb the backlog of orders, will be able to further maximize profits.

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2.     Oil tanker capacity trend

This is the current status of crude tanker fleets around the world. As of 2023, the global fleet capacity is about 460Mil DWT. If you look at the rate of change (%) of fleets, you can see that 2011 was 6.7%, 2019 was 6.5%, and 2009 was 6.1%, which was the highest year.

 

Introduction of tanker ships ② Freight rate (WS) introduction, market trend analysis, oil price trend check (tistory.com)

 

In the article, I briefly mentioned the VLCC market. While the upturns in 2019 and 20 were driven by political issues, 2022 was typically driven by fundamentals. And it is judged that this warm wind will continue for the time being.

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3. Status of old tanker fleet

We will also look at the status of tankers by age. Panamax vessels are classified as vessels of 85,000 DWT or less, Aframax as vessels of 125,000 DWT or less, Suezmax as vessels of 200,000 DWT or less, and vessels of 200,000 DWT or more as VLCC vessels.

 

• Similar to bulk carriers and container ships, if you look at the distribution of old ships over 20 years old, out of a total of 351 ships, there are 16 Panamax, 124 Afraxmax, 84 Suezmax, and 127 VLCC. Due to IMO's environmental regulations (EEXI, CII), it is expected that the scrapping time of these old ships will be advanced.
• (For reference, the number of tankers worldwide is currently 2,292)

 

In other words, when the above-mentioned trends in fleet volume and order book are added, additional new ships are limited, and the distribution of old ships is high, VLCC and Aframax.

 

In fact, in introducing and analyzing tanker ships, I should have introduced product ships and chemical ships in addition to oil tankers, but I am a little disappointed that I could not cover the whole. We will spend some time later to analyze the product line and chemical line in a little more depth.

 

 

Thanks for reading.