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Shipping Market Insight

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Shipping Market Insight

shippingmarket.tistory.com/m

Research on Shipping Market

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BDI & SCFI prediction (‘23/12W) In the 12th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. BDI forecast 1-1. ARIMA, Time series analysis For the BDI index forecast, I used weekly data (476 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to March 24, 2023 to predict the freight for three weeks in the future. Date Forecast ‘22/13W(4/3~7) 1,365.481 ‘22/14W(4/10~14) 1,257.375 ‘22/15W(4/17~21) 1,183.132 1-2. Logisti.. 공감수 13 댓글수 0 2023. 3. 27.
Container market outlook for 2023 I would like to summarize and introduce the container market forecast data from BIMCO. 1. World Economy -. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.2% and 2.9% in 2023, emphasizing that the risk of a global recession has risen. In particular, further downside risks exist, and the IMF's worst-case scenario forecasts further declines in glo.. 공감수 2 댓글수 0 2022. 10. 21.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/28W) In the 28th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/27W(7/4~8) 2,122.379 2,088.00 1.6% 98.4% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/27W(7/4~8) 4,201.261 4,201.26 1.4% 98.6% The prediction acc.. 공감수 2 댓글수 0 2022. 7. 11.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/27W) In the 27th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/26W(6/27~7/1) 2,527.450 2,227.89 13.4% 86.6% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/26W(6/27~7/1) 4,211.002 4,216.13 0.2% 99.8% The predict.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2022. 7. 3.
[IMPORTANT] Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year(Forecast) (‘22/June) The supply and demand status of container ships/dry bulk carriers/tankers/LNG carriers analyzed in March has been updated. This report is updated on a quarterly basis to provide a macro investment perspective. Ref) Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year (Forecast) (‘22/3M) (tistory.com) Inspection of market conditions by ship type/year (Forecast) (‘22/3M) Among the various ship types .. 공감수 7 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 30.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/26W) In the 26th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/25W(6/20~24) 2,416.467 2,422.80 0.3% 99.7% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/25W(6/20~24) 4,218.104 4,216.13 0.1% 99.9% The prediction.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 26.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/25W) In the 25th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/24W(6/13~17) 2,411.164 2,394.20 0.7% 99.3% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/24W(6/13~17) 4,241.340 4,221.96 0.5% 99.5% The prediction.. 공감수 7 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 19.
BDI Prediction Using Holt-Winters Additive Exponential Smoothing 1. Overview The principle of smoothing is to remove noise from the data by averaging several observations. The smoothing method can be divided into a moving average method and a simple exponential smoothing method. Both methods (moving average, simple exponential smoothing) are suitable for time series in which there is no trend or seasonal variation. Since the moving average method is easily us.. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 13.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/24W) In the 24th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/23W(6/6~10) 2,241.961 2,429.20 7.7% 92.3% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/23W(6/6~10) 4,210.933 4,233.31 0.5% 99.5% The prediction a.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 12.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/23W) In the 23rd week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/22W(5/30~6.3) 2,937.708 2,590.00 13.4% 86.6% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/22W(5/30~6.3) 4,177.124 4,208.01 0.7% 99.3% The predict.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 6. 5.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/22W) In the 22nd week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/21W(5/23~27) 3,185.337 3,072.60 3.7% 96.3% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/21W(5/23~27) 4,159.141 4,175.35 0.4% 99.6% The prediction.. 공감수 2 댓글수 0 2022. 5. 29.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/21W) In the 21st week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/20W(5/16~20) 3,203.596 3,200.40 0.1% 99.9% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/20W(5/16~20) 4,137.046 4,162.69 0.6% 99.4% The prediction.. 공감수 7 댓글수 0 2022. 5. 22.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/20W) In the 20th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/19W(5/9~13) 2,623.855 3,008.60 12.8% 87.2% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/19W(5/9~13) 4,155.752 4,147.83 0.2% 99.8% The prediction .. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2022. 5. 16.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/19W) In the 19th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/18W(5/2~6) 2,511.710 2,564.75 2.1% 97.9% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/18W(5/2~6) 4,164.260 4,163.74 0.1% 99.9% The prediction acc.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 5. 8.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/18W) In this article, I'm going to compare the superiority of the models by periodically predicting/verifying the freight rates using ARIMA and logistic regression models. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/17W(4/25~29) 2,246.158 2,398.40 6.3% 93.7% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 5. 2.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/17W) The comparison and test of BDI and SCFI predicted last week and Actual BDI and SCFI last week are compared and tested. Through the process of comparing the prediction error and direction of the predictive value, I will continue to practice the history of the parameter value. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/16W(4/1.. 공감수 11 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 23.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/16W) The BDI, SCFI predicted last week and the average actual BDI, SCFI the last week (4/11~14) are compared and tested. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/15W(4/11~14) 2,034.748 2,067.75 1.6% 98.4% were achieved. 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/15W(4/11~14) 4,24.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 17.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/15W) The BDI and SCFI predicted last week and the average actual BDI and SCFI values of the last week are compared and tested. From this analysis, the forecast value was predicted by adding the logistic regression model analysis method to ARIMA. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/14W(4/4~8) 2,244.468 2,152.80 4.3% 95.7% 1.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 10.
SCFI Prediction Using SVR Model By using the regression algorithm of SVM, which is a representative algorithm of machine learning, I want to predict the recently soaring container freight index. Machine learning is one of the research fields of artificial intelligence, and it refers to the process of building a computer program to improve or predict an existing model or outcome through learning based on empirical data. In othe.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 9.
BDI Prediction Using Logistic Regression Analysis Logistic regression is a model specific to the relationship between a predictor and a response variable, and extends the concept of linear regression to a case where the dependent variable Y is categorical. The logistic regression model is a regression analysis model applied when the response variable is categorical. It does not require any assumptions about the independent variable, so it is po.. 공감수 2 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 8.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/14W) Firstly, the BDI and SCFI values predicted last week and the average actual BDI and SCFI values of this week are compared and tested. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual BDI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/14W 2,483.531 2,397.00 3.6% 96.4% 1-2. SCFI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual SCFI MAPE(%) Accuracy(%) ‘22/14W 4,430.827 4,348.81 .. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 4. 4.
BDI & SCFI prediction (‘22/13W) By using ‘ARIMA’, a representative time series model mainly used in econometrics, the future price of BDI, a bulk carrier rate index, and SCFI, a container freight rate index, will be predicted periodically. 1. BDI Outlook To forecast the BDI index, we used weekly data (425 pieces) from January 3, 2014 to March 25, 2022 to predict the index for three weeks in the future. Date Forecast Lo80 Hi80 .. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2022. 3. 30.

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